The Challenge Rambles and riff raff about all this and that

Trying to understand where the market is heading

I find I'm spending incremental time trying to understand the hidden strings behind the web-as-a-whole behavior.

Something is brewing under the hood; and many pre-conditions for massive changes are starting to get deployed all over the web.

We've all read posts about Web 2.0 being dead and headline-seeking link-love-hunting titles of that sort. It is my understanding that "2.0" is not dead, but being taken for granted. Novelty has worn off. It is no longer "cool stuff" but becoming increasingly "everyday stuff". May this be precondition #1: 2.0 is now mainstream.

There are quite a number of things brewing under the hood. For starters we have the greatly publicized "Semantic Web". It is a good concept, an interesting thing, which might make finding, correlating and aggregating content easier. Yet it has not gone mainstream. There are some good implementations and early adopters. Aptana is a good example, but I still feel it only scratches the potential for the Semantic Web.

Cloud computing is another trend on the raise.

Let me rephrase that: Cloud computing is becoming more common as a buzz word.

Here's my take on cloud computing (something I am becoming more and more involved with lately). It is a nice concept. Not new. Not at all new. Sun has been preaching that "the network is the computer" for almost two decades now.

So how is it that Sun is not Google? Or Amazon?

Because Sun had the overall concept right but: a) they were too early (the infrastructure was not ready) adn b) they never even tried a user-friendly approach for cloud computing. Yet Sun might just be in a good position looking into the future.

If you push me a little bit I might risk it and say that the infrastructure is not ready even today. At least not for household private users. It is one thing to use an online spreadsheet or word document, that works; but what about online storage and backup? Not to mention more complex tasks such as image editing on the cloud or other data-heavy things people might want to move over the cloud.

My take is that the cloud will be among us when a consulting or accountant firm starts using it. Why? Because this sort of firms stand on the opposite end of "early adopters". Gosh, I know accountant firms that use programs in DOS this very day. And yes, account firmswould benefit greatly from using cloud applications.

Another very important fact right now is the economic downturn. In the internet world we've seen much of the push happen thanks to individuals or small startups driving big changes. Even when those projects get acquired by the established companies the germ came from the garage. Yet to drive things from the garage to something that gains a userbase some money is required.

Under the current circumstances funding for new projects might be just too hard to get. This does not mean that ideas will die, but that they will be stalled.

Also, big companies that have scheduled releases and upgrades to existing technologies as well as new products are already considering delaying things. Most people and companies won't buy or upgrade until they are forced to.

Until economy smiles down on us again we will witness some degree of stagnation in the innovation area. The result is that after an economic downturn thre is an explosion of new ideas.

Since people don't stop having new ideas, but stop having the chance to realize them those tend to accumulate and pile up.

So basically: where do I think things are heading in terms ofthe internet?

• Web 2.0 will be given for granted
• We will see improvements on already existing and implemented technologies
• We will witness some degree of stagnation on visible innovation
• Things that we know are on the brew right now might be delayed or slowly implemented
• Lower end technologies and services will do better than more complex and more expensive counterparts.
• Overall cheaper alternatives will flourish

Then again, I might be completely wrong. Yet, as a marketer, it is imperative to try and do some sort of futurology exercises so that I can stay on top of the game instead of finding myself reacting to it.