Quick post.
After the recent personal events it is only today that I return to a somewhat normal life. Incredible ammounts of emails to reply to. Tons of things to do.
I want to write stuff. I have several things on the queue, now it is only a matter of finiding the time to do so.
Keep tuned-in. This ought to be fun.
I find I'm spending incremental time trying to understand the hidden strings behind the web-as-a-whole behavior.
Something is brewing under the hood; and many pre-conditions for massive changes are starting to get deployed all over the web.
We've all read posts about Web 2.0 being dead and headline-seeking link-love-hunting titles of that sort. It is my understanding that "2.0" is not dead, but being taken for granted. Novelty has worn off. It is no longer "cool stuff" but becoming increasingly "everyday stuff". May this be precondition #1: 2.0 is now mainstream.
There are quite a number of things brewing under the hood. For starters we have the greatly publicized "Semantic Web". It is a good concept, an interesting thing, which might make finding, correlating and aggregating content easier. Yet it has not gone mainstream. There are some good implementations and early adopters. Aptana is a good example, but I still feel it only scratches the potential for the Semantic Web.
Cloud computing is another trend on the raise.
Let me rephrase that: Cloud computing is becoming more common as a buzz word.
Here's my take on cloud computing (something I am becoming more and more involved with lately). It is a nice concept. Not new. Not at all new. Sun has been preaching that "the network is the computer" for almost two decades now.
So how is it that Sun is not Google? Or Amazon?
Because Sun had the overall concept right but: a) they were too early (the infrastructure was not ready) adn b) they never even tried a user-friendly approach for cloud computing. Yet Sun might just be in a good position looking into the future.
If you push me a little bit I might risk it and say that the infrastructure is not ready even today. At least not for household private users. It is one thing to use an online spreadsheet or word document, that works; but what about online storage and backup? Not to mention more complex tasks such as image editing on the cloud or other data-heavy things people might want to move over the cloud.
My take is that the cloud will be among us when a consulting or accountant firm starts using it. Why? Because this sort of firms stand on the opposite end of "early adopters". Gosh, I know accountant firms that use programs in DOS this very day. And yes, account firmswould benefit greatly from using cloud applications.
Another very important fact right now is the economic downturn. In the internet world we've seen much of the push happen thanks to individuals or small startups driving big changes. Even when those projects get acquired by the established companies the germ came from the garage. Yet to drive things from the garage to something that gains a userbase some money is required.
Under the current circumstances funding for new projects might be just too hard to get. This does not mean that ideas will die, but that they will be stalled.
Also, big companies that have scheduled releases and upgrades to existing technologies as well as new products are already considering delaying things. Most people and companies won't buy or upgrade until they are forced to.
Until economy smiles down on us again we will witness some degree of stagnation in the innovation area. The result is that after an economic downturn thre is an explosion of new ideas.
Since people don't stop having new ideas, but stop having the chance to realize them those tend to accumulate and pile up.
So basically: where do I think things are heading in terms ofthe internet?
- Web 2.0 will be given for granted
- We will see improvements on already existing and implemented technologies
- We will witness some degree of stagnation on visible innovation
- Things that we know are on the brew right now might be delayed or slowly implemented
- Lower end technologies and services will do better than more complex and more expensive counterparts.
- Overall cheaper alternatives will flourish
Then again, I might be completely wrong. Yet, as a marketer, it is imperative to try and do some sort of futurology exercises so that I can stay on top of the game instead of finding myself reacting to it.
Recent news about changes on Facebook's ToS have spread like wildfire. To make the legal mambo-jumbo short: users renounce to all their content's rights and hand them to facebook (depending on the privacy setting).
Since controversy did not wait long, Mark Zuckerberg decided to post at Facebook's blog to try and clarify things a little bit.
While witnessing the entire soap opera and especially while ruminating Mark's reply it is quite evident that the never seriously addressed problem of an ever-outdating legislation is at the core of the entire thing:
When a person shares information on Facebook, they first need to grant Facebook a license to use that information so that we can show it to the other people they've asked us to share it with. Without this license, we couldn't help people share that information.
Facebook's argument is that users need to entitle the social network with usage right to enable sharing with other users. And, truth must be said, with the current state of the law-technology relationship that point is valid.
I will not discuss if I buy or don't Facebook's possition of "you need to trust us", since it is irrelevant for this post.
Am I the only one that thinks that the fact that a user needs to recede his content rights in favor of facebook so that that same user is enabled to share stuff with his/her friends is inappropriate?
The whole thing reminded me of Lawrence Lessig's introduction to his book "Free Culture". In it Lawrence retells the story of the early days of flight. Before airplanes existed the legislation granted land-owners right of the airspace above their piece of land.
This was bound to be a major source of trouble as flight became more of a commonplace. Mr. Lessig describes what happened when things went to congress in a wonderful fashion:
But Justice Douglas had no patience for ancient doctrine. In a single paragraph, hundreds of years of property law were erased. As he wrote for the Court,
[The] doctrine has no place in the modern world. The air is a public highway, as Congress has declared. Were that not true, every transcontinental flight would subject the operator to countless trespass suits. Common sense revolts at the idea. To recognize such private claims to the airspace would clog these highways, seriously interfere with their control and development in the public interest, and transfer into private ownership that to which only the public has a just claim.
"Common sense revolts at the idea."
This is how the law usually works. Not often this abruptly or impatiently, but eventually, this is how it works. It was Douglas's style not to dither. Other justices would have blathered on for pages to reach the conclusion that Douglas holds in a single line: "Common sense revolts at the idea." But whether it takes pages or a few words, it is the special genius of a common law system, as ours is, that the law adjusts to the technologies of the time. And as it adjusts, it changes. Ideas that were as solid as rock in one age crumble in another.
Or at least, this is how things happen when there's no one powerful on the other side of the change. The Causbys were just farmers.
Sounds awfully familiar, right?
The law around Copyright is outdated and obstrusive. It does not apply to the current state of affairs. At the time most of the Copyright legislation was put in place infromation and content could not flow (and be transformed) the way they do so nowadays.
To over-simplify here's the scenario: technology moves much faster than legislation. There are two main reasons for this: 1. the way the legislative process works and 2. pressure groups with interest in keeping things as they are until they can find a way to profit under the new scenario.
This needs to change. We can no longer afford remaining in the dark ages in terms of the laws by which we try to do things. Copyright is just one of the areas where outdated laws cause problems. Under the current circumstances the highest risk is that everything might turn into a black market of sorts.
Back to the Facebook problem: under the current law facebook must act as if it were a content publisher. It is not, and there is no legal place for services such as Facebook, YouTube or Flickr.
Things such as Creative Commons help. A lot. But they fall short, and are initiatives that are -not at all coincidentally- started by users and consumers, not by law makers. Things such as this yield the innevitable question: if law makers fail to do what they are supposed to do, wont people start to question their validity? The result posts a serious threat to the order of things.
One more thing catches my attention in a powerfu way: How Social Media Marketers and luminaries as a collective fail to address such a central issue.
Let me be clear here: Social Media is all about content. What happens to that content (and the way it is distributed) should be on the top on the priority list for anyone that makes a living out of social media.
I guess I can understand people trying to keep away from such a hairy issue. Yet the time has come to become responsible and start acting up.
It is rather seldomly that I become speechless. When it happens it is because something too good or too bad happens.
Fortunately it is something good that has caused it.
I was not going to talk about it, yet it has become public and this I think I need to address it.
Prometheus @ Rockefeller center
Today I was granted the "Prometheus Award"; the top-notch Lenovo Marketing recognition. The best part of it is that it is given by peers, not by management.
The sheer fact that the people I work with everyday consider me worth being awarded is mind-blowing. I don't think I have enough words to thank the awesome people I find myself working with on a daily basis.
Although David (da Boss for those readers outside of the lenovo entrails) says he had nothing to do about this I know differently. If it weren't for him (and Jim) making a leap into the void and getting me into their team this would of never been possible.
The fact that a guy who has managed to inspire and challenge me in so many ways writes this about me makes me feel almost too good about myself.
Enough self-promotion for the day. I only have "thank you" left to say.
I am seriously time constrained this days. I promise a good post later today or tomorrow (read that: tomorrow).
In the time being the infamous unordered list of random thoughts with no connection with reality whatsoever.
- Being having musings about crisis and leadership lately. Discussed some of that with "da Boss". Food for post. Not right now, but expect it soon.
- I have hosed my system. Rendered it unusable. IT was of no help, so I did what any nerd would do. Grabbed a copy of windows 7 beta and installed it. Corporate IT should be pissed if they find out. But let's just keep it a secret for the time being. (more first impressions on Windows 7 after the end of the list)
- I am very distracted. The fact that I might become a parent any time now might have a lot to do with that. Lots of doctor appointments and stuff like that.
- Starting to feel excitement and inspiration in relation with work again. I have one person to thank. He knows who he is. He thinks he is no good at motivation. I say BS.
- I have written 5 drafts in the past 2 days. Lots of good "starting ideas", but I'm procrastinating on giving those posts the tie and attention they require.
Windows 7 on my T60p
So... what has this linux-evangelist-wannabe have to say about with Windows 7?
I'll be doomed, but I like what I see. It is still not there (it is a beta after all), but it is a good improvement from Vista and from XP. I have encountered some bugs and quircks and there are some behaviours that one should get the choice to remove alltogether (for instance all the confirmations you get when installing software!). But the OS behaves quite well, quite stable and fairly nice.
I have also noticed some stuff which might be inspired on things I've seen on Linux for a long time (look and feel, placement of user profiles, application data).
Finally I also got rid of Lotus Notes 7 and installed 8.5 beta. That is also a fairly good improvement that will make my life easier.
The only memory hog left on my system is TweetDeck. 250MB on Ram for a program that retrieves images and texts from the web is unacceptable.
Crisis. Market Crash. Layoffs. Lowered Margins. Need for profits.
Perfect scenario for Social Meda to go profitable. And Ugly.
Since I've been recently called out "Emo" due to the nature of my recent posts and Mark made the valid point that "We need to [...] call out the frigtards", I decided to go upbeat and have a little fun with how ugly some things will turn out for social media this 2009
As CFOs shake up the dust and make a comeback to steering companies' fates we're witnessing budget cuts everywhere. If you can't prove what you do can earn money (not just save, but earn) your have good chances of facing a difficult reality. Difficult as in "job hunting" difficult.
I'm prepared to witness a ton of experiments that will make me want to go and live as a hermit in some obscure and inaccessible cave with no internet access. Dire situations require desperate measures. This can be the recipe for:
a. unprecedented originality or, much more frequently:
b. nasty efforts that smell, look and taste like desperation.
This can be a good thing for a couple of reasons. For starters it will be fun to watch and blog about. It will also put many the self-proclaimed social media experts in evidence as little more than hot air.
As water levels go down stuff that was previously hidden starts to pop-up. Exposure can be ugly. Particularly for those exposed.
So, what is a Social Media marketer to do?
Accountability is an excellent concept to stay somewhat in the safe zone. At least it can keep you in the safe zone if you have some results you can be accountable for in the first place. So, in case there are results to be proud of the challenge then becomes one that is common ground already: how to measure in Social Media. But that is a matter for a separate post.
Generating direct revenue and increasing ROI should also be high on any social marketer's agenda. Signing off the papers to wipe out a department or team is always herder to do if that same department or team is earning money.
Yet the risk resides in trying to make money at any cost. The infamous bread for today, hunger for tomorrow. Spam email is the perfect example of this sort of behaviour. It might generate some revenue. It will sell a few products, but the negative impact on the brand is perdurable and undermines future profits. It is the same principle that yields Soil degradation as a product of overgrazing. Fit too many cows in a plow of land (or try to sell too many products through the wrong channel) and you'll have one moderately good year and a nice desert (or lack of customers) soon.
That is what we'll witness during 2009 and that is the sole futurology attemtp I'll make. It is going to get nasty. And that is always fun.
One of the reasons accountable for the lousy number of posts in this blog in Jannuary is probably disenchantment.
Let me frame the picture.
For starters I'm not a summer person. I was born and raied in Patagonia, cold is my game. If it is hot I don't function, I can't think, I can barely react. Air conditioning helps to a certain extent, but it is not 100% effective.
Recent events have also shifted the perspective in which I see many things. My job and my line of work included. I have been sort of forced to re-evaluate priorities, and the result is not that nice for Social Media. There are things far more important than that in my life.
With that in mind and the fact that I'm not too fond of where parts of the Social Media industry (is there such a thing?) are heading builds up my disenchantment.
I am still a believer. Heck! I'm more than a believer I'm a friggin' idealist, thus, chances are, I'll be back to my normal mood soon.
In the meantime I'll pay some attention to my family's needs (which I've neglected way too much) and divert some thoughts to different places to look for inspiration. I need to rest the mind, rethink plenty of stuff and get back to doing breaking ground stuff.
I'll be back, realoaded, and more of a smartass than ever before. Watch out.
(Editors note: bare in mind that disenchantment is not the same as disappointment)